Expert economic analysis to help grow your business
US-CHINA TRADE WAR
Ongoing trade tensions between the US and China remain a significant concern for WA’s economic recovery as our State’s economy is more dependent on China than any other Australian state.
Over half of WA’s exports go to China and 53% of our economy is dependent on exports, which means continued global tension is a double-edged sword for WA.
China’s response to its economy slowing further could either bolster the WA economy – if it proceeds with further Government funded infrastructure stimulus – or our export growth could be put at risk.
- DIFFERENCES IN SENTIMENT -
COMMUNITY OPTIMISM vs BUSINESS OPTIMISM
Sabil is agency, for business & development since 1995 based in Paris.
At Sabil we care about every detail, our goal to make our clients satisfied with their projects.
Looking for more information about what we do?
Our economics team has its finger on the pulse when it comes to the Western Australian economy.
Help your business stay ahead of the pack with our expert analysis of how the economy is performing both domestically and globally, how changing economic conditions may impact your business and how you can position yourself for future growth.
BREAKOUT ANALYSIS
WA'S RETAIL SECTOR
=
=
Want to stay ahead of the pack with our economic updates?
- CONTACT -
Don’t hesitate to contact us
CALL US
1300 422 492
economics@cciwa.com
ADDRESS
180 Hay Street, East Perth WA 6004
WEBSITE
www.cciwa.com
What this means for WA
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
BREAKOUT ANALYSIS
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
EARLY RELAXATION OF COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS BOOST SHORT-TERM CONFIDENCE
June Quarter 2020
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY WEIGH ON THE LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK
WA’S REGIONS FACE TOUGH OPERATING CONDITIONS
LOCAL BUSINESSES SUFFER FROM BORDER RESTRICTIONS
COVID-19 DRIVES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TO RECORD LOWS
WEST AUSTRALIANS PLAN TO SPEND MORE IN WA
June Quarter 2020
GROWING THE ECONOMY BEST WAY TO PAY DOWN DEBT
CASUAL WORKERS MOST AFFECTED BY COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS
March - June 2019
ABN: 96 929 977 985 ACN: 099 891 611
Copyright © 2020 Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia
ABN: 96 929 977 985 ARBN: 099 891 611
Copyright © 2020 Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia
Expert economic analysis to grow your business
OUTLOOK
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
We ensure your business stays ahead of the pack on how the WA economy is performing
Our economics team has its finger on the pulse when it comes to the Western Australian economy.
Help your business stay ahead of the pack with our expert analysis of how the economy is performing both domestically and globally, how changing economic conditions may impact your business and how you can position yourself for future growth.
Our Team
Senior Economist
Graduate Economist
Looking for more information about what we do?
OUTLOOK
HOUSEHOLD SPENDING
TO FALL
WEAK WAGES GROWTH TO CONTINUE
GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES WILL BRING FORWARD DWELLING INVESTMENT
The quadrupling of government support for new home builders has triggered a rush to secure land and lay a slab.
EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ECONOMY
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WILL INCREASE
Weakness in international trade has not harmed WA’s commodity exports, which have been supported by high demand for Australian iron ore. However, capacity constraints will continue to place a ceiling on growth in export volumes.
CAUTION WILL REDUCE BUSINESS INVESTMENT
In the current uncertain environment, many business owners are more cautious in committing to investments and some projects have been deferred. However, investment in WA will continue to be supported by spending on major projects.
- CONTACT -
Don’t hesitate to contact us
CALL US
1300 422 492
economics@cciwa.com
ADDRESS
180 Hay Street, East Perth WA 6004
WEBSITE
www.cciwa.com
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
Our WA Super – CCIWA Business Confidence Survey is the only WA-specific index in the country, providing a snapshot of state-wide economic conditions and business expectations.
EARLY RELAXATION OF COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS BOOST SHORT-TERM CONFIDENCE
The short-term improvement was driven primarily by an earlier than expected relaxation of social distancing restrictions and sustained evidence that Western Australia has remained free of community based COVID-19 transmission. Western Australian short-term business confidence has now recovered around 60 per cent of the fall recorded during the peak of the pandemic.
June Quarter 2020
HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY WEIGH ON THE LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK
While short-term sentiment has improved, businesses are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the longer-term outlook. Two out of three (66%) businesses expect the WA economy to worsen over the year ahead, up 5 percentage points since last quarter, while only 16 per cent expect conditions to improve. This increases the imperative for State and Federal governments to commit to meaningful economic reform and supercharge WA’s economic recovery by unlocking new business investment.
WA’S REGIONS FACE TOUGH OPERATING CONDITIONS
A higher proportion of businesses in every region expect weaker conditions over the short-term compared to those expecting stronger conditions. The majority expect conditions to worsen over the next twelve months. Three out of four (75%) surveyed businesses in the Goldfields and Wheatbelt regions expect weaker conditions over the year ahead, while skill shortages remain the largest barrier to growth for surveyed businesses in the Mid-West, Gascoyne and Pilbara (28%) and Kimberley (36%).
LOCAL BUSINESSES SUFFER FROM BORDER RESTRICTIONS
Three out of five (60%) businesses are currently suffering from interstate border restrictions, slightly more than the proportion being affected by international border closures (55%). Services-based industries appear most affected by interstate border closures, including Accommodation and Food Services (95%), Wholesale Trade (89%) and Retail Trade (76%).
Our WA Super–CCIWA Business Confidence Survey is the only WA-specific index in the country, providing a snapshot of state-wide economic conditions and business expectations.
Want to stay ahead of the pack with our economic updates?
BREAKOUT ANALYSIS
WA RETAIL SECTOR
WA's retail sector continues to struggle
Why this matters
WA's retail sector continues to struggle
Why this matters
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Our Consumer Confidence Survey is the only survey of its kind in WA, canvassing the views of adult consumers in both metropolitan Perth and regional WA.
COVID-19 DRIVES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TO RECORD LOWS
The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has driven Western Australian consumer confidence to its lowest level on record, according to the latest CCIWA Consumer Confidence Survey. Four out of five (81%) Western Australians rated COVID-19 as reducing their confidence in the June quarter, while a high number of Western Australians reported heightened concerns about their job prospects and personal financial situation.
WEST AUSTRALIANS PLAN TO SPEND MORE IN WA
To assess future spending expectations, we asked WA consumers whether they plan to increase spending on a range of items when social distancing restrictions are lifted.
- More than one out of two (54%) Western Australians plan to increase spending on holidays within WA when restrictions are eased, more than double the proportion that plan to holiday internationally (23%).
- One out of three (34%) plan to boost their social outings at a bar or pub, while four out of ten (43%) expect to eat out more.
Short-Term confidence (3-months) 13.8 index points
June Quarter 2020
GROWING THE ECONOMY BEST WAY TO PAY DOWN DEBT
In order to pay for recent COVID-19 stimulus measures, both the State and Federal Governments will have to take on greater levels of debt which must be paid back in the future. The vast majority of Western Australians (84%) believe the best way to repay this debt going forward is to grow the economy, rather than simply raising taxes on businesses and households. Only 14 per cent would be supportive of higher taxes to pay down debt.
CASUAL WORKERS MOST AFFECTED BY COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS
In this special edition of the CCIWA Consumer Confidence Survey investigated the extent to which Western Australian’s employment status has changed since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to May 2020):
- 21 per cent of previously employed casual workers are now currently unemployed – the highest proportion of all employment categories - and a further 9 per cent moved out of the workforce.
Given that a higher share of casual workers are employed in industries hardest hit from COVID-19 shutdowns, such as hospitality and retail, many of those ineligible for the JobKeeper subsidy were more likely to have been laid off. To be eligible for the program, casual employees must have worked for their employer for 12 months or more.
Household spending has been on a wild ride. Consumers have increased spending on some retail categories but significantly reduced spending in other areas (e.g. transport services, discretionary retail, cafes and restaurants). Increased unemployment and falls in income will reduce household spending.
The short-term improvement was driven primarily by an earlier than expected relaxation of social distancing restrictions and sustained evidence that Western Australia has remained free of community based COVID-19 transmission. Western Australian short-term business confidence has now recovered around 60 per cent of the fall recorded during the peak of the pandemic.
A higher proportion of businesses in every region expect weaker conditions over the short-term compared to those expecting stronger conditions. The majority expect conditions to worsen over the next twelve months. Three out of four (75%) surveyed businesses in the Goldfields and Wheatbelt regions expect weaker conditions over the year ahead, while skill shortages remain the largest barrier to growth for surveyed businesses in the Mid-West, Gascoyne and Pilbara (28%) and Kimberley (36%).
While short-term sentiment has improved, businesses are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the longer-term outlook. Two out of three (66%) businesses expect the WA economy to worsen over the year ahead, up 5 percentage points since last quarter, while only 16 per cent expect conditions to improve. This increases the imperative for State and Federal governments to commit to meaningful economic reform and supercharge WA’s economic recovery by unlocking new business investment.
Three out of five (60%) businesses are currently suffering from interstate border restrictions, slightly more than the proportion being affected by international border closures (55%). Services-based industries appear most affected by interstate border closures, including Accommodation and Food Services (95%), Wholesale Trade (89%) and Retail Trade (76%).
The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has driven Western Australian consumer confidence to its lowest level on record, according to the latest CCIWA Consumer Confidence Survey. Four out of five (81%) Western Australians rated COVID-19 as reducing their confidence in the June quarter, while a high number of Western Australians reported heightened concerns about their job prospects and personal financial situation.
In order to pay for recent COVID-19 stimulus measures, both the State and Federal Governments will have to take on greater levels of debt which must be paid back in the future. The vast majority of Western Australians (84%) believe the best way to repay this debt going forward is to grow the economy, rather than simply raising taxes on businesses and households. Only 14 per cent would be supportive of higher taxes to pay down debt.
In this special edition of the CCIWA Consumer Confidence Survey investigated the extent to which Western Australian’s employment status has changed since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to May 2020):
- 21 per cent of previously employed casual workers are now currently unemployed – the highest proportion of all employment categories - and a further 9 per cent moved out of the workforce.
Given that a higher share of casual workers are employed in industries hardest hit from COVID-19 shutdowns, such as hospitality and retail, many of those ineligible for the JobKeeper subsidy were more likely to have been laid off. To be eligible for the program, casual employees must have worked for their employer for 12 months or more.
To assess future spending expectations, we asked WA consumers whether they plan to increase spending on a range of items when social distancing restrictions are lifted.
- More than one out of two (54%) Western Australians plan to increase spending on holidays within WA when restrictions are eased, more than double the proportion that plan to holiday internationally (23%).
- One out of three (34%) plan to boost their social outings at a bar or pub, while four out of ten (43%) expect to eat out more.
We ensure your business stays ahead of the pack on how the WA economy is performing.
WHAT WE DO
Almost one out of two (48%) WA businesses expect economic conditions to improve or remain unchanged over the next 3 months, up 10 percentage points since last quarter
Business Confidence
June
Quarter 2020
Short-term confidence (3 months)
BREAKOUT ANALYSIS
COMPARISON - CONSUMER VS BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
Long-term confidence (12 months)
Consumer Confidence
June
Quarter 2020
10.1 index points
13.8 index points
0.1 index points
3.1 index points
Comparing: June – September Quarters 2019
Business Confidence
Expect weaker economic conditions
5%
Expectations over the next 3 months
9%
Expectations over the past 12 months
Expect a drop in profitability
6%
Expect to increase capital expenditure
4%
15%
12%
Anticipate higher levels of debt or credit
COVID-19
Consumer Confidence
Top detractor from confidence
Exceeded their monthly incomes
Expectations over the past 3 months
Weaker personal financial situation
Expectations over the next 12 months
Expect to reduce staffing levels
5%
What West Australians think
Western Australia is in a unique economic situation. Our economy has been buffeted by the winds of COVID-19. Yet for parts of the economy at present, conditions are relatively calm due to enormous levels of fiscal stimulus. With significant headwinds on the horizon however, we are very much in the eye of the storm.
BIANNUAL FORECAST FOR THE WA ECONOMY
Many businesses have sought to keep their employees in work during the COVID-19 pandemic. Weekly payroll jobs have shown some signs of recovery, particularly in WA, supported by the reopening of the WA economy. However, the unemployment rate will continue to increase in 2020-21 as more people look for work and support measures are wound back.
Falls in business revenue and investment will restrict businesses from hiring more workers and increasing wages.
That said, in some areas, there will continue to be areas of skills shortages putting upward pressure on wages, as businesses compete to attract workers.
-3.0% in 2020-21
1.0% in 2021-22
1.0% in 2020-21
1.5% in 2021-22
-4.5% in 2020-21
2.0% in 2021-22
11% in 2020-21
9.0% in 2021-22
5.0% in 2020-21
-6.0% in 2021-22
0.5% in 2020-21
1.0% in 2021-22
Our economics team has its finger on the pulse
when it comes to the Western Australian economy.
Help your business stay ahead of the pack with our expert analysis of how the economy is performing both domestically and globally, how changing economic conditions may impact your business and how you can position yourself for future growth.
We ensure your business stays ahead of the pack on how the WA economy is performing.
WHAT WE DO
SNAPSHOT
WHAT WE DO
We ensure your business stays ahead of the pack on how the WA economy is performing
Our economics team has its finger on the pulse when it comes to the Western Australian economy.
Help your business stay ahead of the pack with our expert analysis of how the economy is performing both domestically and globally, how changing economic conditions may impact your business and how you can position yourself for future growth.
Our Team
Chief Economist
Senior Economist
Graduate Economist
WHAT WE DO
Senior Economist
Graduate Economist
What WA businesses think
What West Australians think
OUR TEAM
CURRENT ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
What WA businesses think
What West Australians think
Almost one out of two (48%) WA businesses expect economic conditions to improve or remain unchanged over the next 3 months, up 10 percentage points since last quarter
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
Our WA Super – CCIWA Business Confidence Survey is the only WA-specific index in the country, providing a snapshot of state-wide economic conditions and business expectations.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DROPS IN SEPTEMBER QUARTER
The WA economy is not performing as strongly as it was compared to the 10-year average, but that includes a period of unprecedented economic growth. Businesses expectations for the WA economy remains mixed.
Next 3-months 7%
September 2019 Quarter
CONFIDENCE SOFTENS AS PROFITABILITY FALLS
Global headwinds may have contributed to the fall in medium-term expectations, driven by a slowing world economy, escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and mounting uncertainty in the Eurozone.
Next 12-months 3%
INDUSTRIES LEADING CONFIDENCE
Top 3 industries leading confidence over the medium term (next 12-months):
1. Healthcare
2. Construction
3. Mining
BARRIERS TO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
Top 3 barriers to business confidence in the September 2019 quarter:
1. Weak demand
2. Rising operating costs
3. Availability of skilled labour
West Australian businesses are more confident about end-of-year trading conditions but less confident about the next 12 months.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
Our WA Super – CCIWA Business Confidence Survey is the only WA-specific index in the country, providing a snapshot of state-wide economic conditions and business expectations.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DROPS IN SEPTEMBER QUARTER
The WA economy is not performing as strongly as it was compared to the 10-year average, but that includes a period of unprecedented economic growth. Businesses expectations for the WA economy remains mixed.
Next 3-months 7%
September 2019 Quarter
CONFIDENCE SOFTENS AS PROFITABILITY FALLS
Global headwinds may have contributed to the fall in medium-term expectations, driven by a slowing world economy, escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and mounting uncertainty in the Eurozone.
Next 12-months 3%
INDUSTRIES LEADING CONFIDENCE
Top 3 industries leading confidence over the medium term (next 12-months):
1. Healthcare
2. Construction
3. Mining
BARRIERS TO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
Top 3 barriers to business confidence in the September 2019 quarter:
1. Weak demand
2. Rising operating costs
3. Availability of skilled labour
West Australian businesses are more confident about end-of-year trading conditions but less confident about the next 12 months.
West Australian businesses are more confident about end-of-year trading conditions but less confident about the next 12 months.
Our Consumer Confidence Survey is the only survey of its kind in WA, canvassing the views of adult consumers in both metropolitan Perth and regional WA.
Next 3 months 13.8 index points
Next 12 months 3.1 index points
OUTLOOK
HOUSEHOLD SPENDING TO SLOW
WEAK WAGES GROWTH TO CONTINUE
GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES WILL BRING FORWARD DWELLING INVESTMENT
The quadrupling of government support for new home builders has triggered a rush to secure land and lay a slab.
EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ECONOMY
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WILL INCREASE
Weakness in international trade has not harmed WA’s commodity exports, which have been supported by high demand for Australian iron ore. However, capacity constraints will continue to place a ceiling on growth in export volumes.
CAUTION WILL REDUCE BUSINESS INVESTMENT
In the current uncertain environment, many business owners are more cautious in committing to investments and some projects have been deferred. However, investment in WA will continue to be supported by spending on major projects.
Household spending has been on a wild ride. Consumers have increased spending on some retail categories but significantly reduced spending in other areas (e.g. transport services, discretionary retail, cafes and restaurants). Increased unemployment and falls in income will reduce household spending.
Western Australia is in a unique economic situation. Our economy has been buffeted by the winds of COVID-19. Yet for parts of the economy at present, conditions are relatively calm due to enormous levels of fiscal stimulus. With significant headwinds on the horizon however, we are very much in the Eye of the Storm.
BIANNUAL FORECAST FOR THE WA ECONOMY
Many businesses have sought to keep their employees in work during the COVID-19 pandemic. Weekly payroll jobs have showed some signs of recovery, particularly in WA, supported by the reopening of the WA economy. However, the unemployment rate will continue to increase in 2020-21 as more people look for work and support measures are wound back.
Falls in business revenue and investment will restrict businesses from hiring more workers and increasing wages. That said, in some areas there will continue to be areas of skills shortages putting upward pressure on wages, as businesses compete to attract workers.
-3.0% in 2020-21
1.0% in 2021-22
1.0% in 2020-21
1.5% in 2021-22
-4.5% in 2020-21
2.0% in 2021-22
11% in 2020-21
9.0% in 2021-22
5.0% in 2020-21
-6.0% in 2021-22
0.5% In 2020-21
1.0% in 2021-22
CURRENT ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
Medium-Term confidence (12-months) 3.1 index points
June Quarter 2020
June Quarter 2020
June Quarter 2020
June Quarter 2020
June Quarter 2020
June Quarter 2020
17%
Short-term confidence (3 months) 10.1 index points
Long-term confidence (12 months) 0.1 index points
Next 3 months 10.1 index points
Next 12 months 0.1 index points
Weaker job prospects