Expert economic analysis to help grow your business

US-CHINA TRADE WAR

Ongoing trade tensions between the US and China remain a significant concern for WA’s economic recovery as our State’s economy is more dependent on China than any other Australian state.  
Over half of WA’s exports go to China and 53% of our economy is dependent on exports, which means continued global tension is a double-edged sword for WA.  
China’s response to its economy slowing further could either bolster the WA economy – if it proceeds with further Government funded infrastructure stimulus – or our export growth could be put at risk.

- DIFFERENCES IN SENTIMENT -

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Our economics team has its finger on the pulse when it comes to the Western Australian economy.

Help your business stay ahead of the pack with our expert analysis of how the economy is performing both domestically and globally, how changing economic conditions may impact your business and how you can position yourself for future growth.

Get in touch

BREAKOUT ANALYSIS

WA'S RETAIL SECTOR

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Want to stay ahead of the pack with our economic updates?

- CONTACT -

Don’t hesitate to contact us

CALL US

1300 422 492

EMAIL

economics@cciwa.com

ADDRESS

180 Hay Street, East Perth WA 6004

WEBSITE

www.cciwa.com

What this means for WA 

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

BREAKOUT ANALYSIS

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

EARLY RELAXATION OF COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS BOOST SHORT-TERM CONFIDENCE

June Quarter 2020

HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY WEIGH ON THE LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK

WA’S REGIONS FACE TOUGH OPERATING CONDITIONS

LOCAL BUSINESSES SUFFER FROM BORDER RESTRICTIONS

COVID-19 DRIVES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TO RECORD LOWS

WEST AUSTRALIANS PLAN TO SPEND MORE IN WA

June Quarter 2020

GROWING THE ECONOMY BEST WAY TO PAY DOWN DEBT

CASUAL WORKERS MOST AFFECTED BY COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS

Read our Media ReleaseRead our Media ReleaseRead the Consumer Confidence ReportLearn more

March - June 2019 

ABN: 96 929 977 985 ACN: 099 891 611 
Copyright © 2020 Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia

ABN: 96 929 977 985 ARBN: 099 891 611

Copyright © 2020 Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia

Subscribe now!Subscribe to our Economic Updates

Expert economic analysis to grow your business

OUTLOOK

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

We ensure your business stays ahead of the pack on how the WA economy is performing

Our economics team has its finger on the pulse when it comes to the Western Australian economy.

Help your business stay ahead of the pack with our expert analysis of how the economy is performing both domestically and globally, how changing economic conditions may impact your business and how you can position yourself for future growth.

Our Team

- Dan Norrie -

Senior Economist 

 

- James Walsh -

Graduate Economist 

 

Looking for more information about what we do?

Learn more

OUTLOOK

HOUSEHOLD SPENDING
TO FALL

 

WEAK WAGES GROWTH TO CONTINUE

GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES WILL BRING FORWARD DWELLING INVESTMENT 

The quadrupling of government support for new home builders has triggered a rush to secure land and lay a slab.

EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ECONOMY

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WILL INCREASE

Weakness in international trade has not harmed WA’s commodity exports, which have been supported by high demand for Australian iron ore. However, capacity constraints will continue to place a ceiling on growth in export volumes.

CAUTION WILL REDUCE BUSINESS INVESTMENT

In the current uncertain environment, many business owners are more cautious in committing to investments and some projects have been deferred. However, investment in WA will continue to be supported by spending on major projects.

- CONTACT -

Don’t hesitate to contact us

CALL US

1300 422 492

EMAIL

economics@cciwa.com

ADDRESS

180 Hay Street, East Perth WA 6004

WEBSITE

www.cciwa.com

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

Our WA Super – CCIWA Business Confidence Survey is the only WA-specific index in the country, providing a snapshot of state-wide economic conditions and business expectations.

EARLY RELAXATION OF COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS BOOST SHORT-TERM CONFIDENCE

The short-term improvement was driven primarily by an earlier than expected relaxation of social distancing restrictions and sustained evidence that Western Australia has remained free of community based COVID-19 transmission. Western Australian short-term business confidence has now recovered around 60 per cent of the fall recorded during the peak of the pandemic.

June Quarter 2020

HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY WEIGH ON THE LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK

While short-term sentiment has improved, businesses are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the longer-term outlook. Two out of three (66%) businesses expect the WA economy to worsen over the year ahead, up 5 percentage points since last quarter, while only 16 per cent expect conditions to improve. This increases the imperative for State and Federal governments to commit to meaningful economic reform and supercharge WA’s economic recovery by unlocking new business investment.

WA’S REGIONS FACE TOUGH OPERATING CONDITIONS

A higher proportion of businesses in every region expect weaker conditions over the short-term compared to those expecting stronger conditions. The majority expect conditions to worsen over the next twelve months. Three out of four (75%) surveyed businesses in the Goldfields and Wheatbelt regions expect weaker conditions over the year ahead, while skill shortages remain the largest barrier to growth for surveyed businesses in the Mid-West, Gascoyne and Pilbara (28%) and Kimberley (36%).

LOCAL BUSINESSES SUFFER FROM BORDER RESTRICTIONS

Three out of five (60%) businesses are currently suffering from interstate border restrictions, slightly more than the proportion being affected by international border closures (55%).  Services-based industries appear most affected by interstate border closures, including Accommodation and Food Services (95%), Wholesale Trade (89%) and Retail Trade (76%).

Read the Business Confidence ReportRead our Media Release

Our WA Super–CCIWA Business Confidence Survey is the only WA-specific index in the country, providing a snapshot of state-wide economic conditions and business expectations.

Read the Business Confidence Report

Want to stay ahead of the pack with our economic updates?

Subscribe now!

BREAKOUT ANALYSIS

WA RETAIL SECTOR

WA's retail sector continues to struggle

  • Two out of five retailers expect conditions to worsen over the next 12 months.
  • One out of three retailers expect to lay off staff over the next 3 months.
  • Only 5% expect to increase their capital expenditure.

Why this matters

  • Retail trade has been flat for 3 years.
  • Over 8,500 West Australians want a job in the retail sector but are unable to find one.
  • The vast majority of these people are our young people. 
  • Retail is WA’s third largest employing industry.

WA's retail sector continues to struggle

Why this matters 

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Our Consumer Confidence Survey is the only survey of its kind in WA, canvassing the views of adult consumers in both metropolitan Perth and regional WA.

COVID-19 DRIVES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TO RECORD LOWS

The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has driven Western Australian consumer confidence to its lowest level on record, according to the latest CCIWA Consumer Confidence Survey. Four out of five (81%) Western Australians rated COVID-19 as reducing their confidence in the June quarter, while a high number of Western Australians reported heightened concerns about their job prospects and personal financial situation.

WEST AUSTRALIANS PLAN TO SPEND MORE IN WA 

To assess future spending expectations, we asked WA consumers whether they plan to increase spending on a range of items when social distancing restrictions are lifted.
  -   More than one out of two (54%) Western Australians plan to increase spending on holidays within WA when restrictions are eased, more than double the proportion that plan to holiday internationally (23%). 
  -   One out of three (34%) plan to boost their social outings at a bar or pub, while four out of ten (43%) expect to eat out more.

Short-Term confidence (3-months)       13.8 index points

June Quarter 2020

GROWING THE ECONOMY BEST WAY TO PAY DOWN DEBT

In order to pay for recent COVID-19 stimulus measures, both the State and Federal Governments will have to take on greater levels of debt which must be paid back in the future. The vast majority of Western Australians (84%) believe the best way to repay this debt going forward is to grow the economy, rather than simply raising taxes on businesses and households. Only 14 per cent would be supportive of higher taxes to pay down debt.

CASUAL WORKERS MOST AFFECTED BY COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS

In this special edition of the CCIWA Consumer Confidence Survey investigated the extent to which Western Australian’s employment status has changed since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to May 2020): 
  -   21 per cent of previously employed casual workers are now currently unemployed – the highest proportion of all employment categories - and a further 9 per cent moved out of the workforce. 
Given that a higher share of casual workers are employed in industries hardest hit from COVID-19 shutdowns, such as hospitality and retail, many of those ineligible for the JobKeeper subsidy were more likely to have been laid off. To be eligible for the program, casual employees must have worked for their employer for 12 months or more.

Read our Media ReleaseRead the Consumer Confidence Report

Household spending has been on a wild ride. Consumers have increased spending on some retail categories but significantly reduced spending in other areas (e.g. transport services, discretionary retail, cafes and restaurants). Increased unemployment and falls in income will reduce household spending.

The short-term improvement was driven primarily by an earlier than expected relaxation of social distancing restrictions and sustained evidence that Western Australia has remained free of community based COVID-19 transmission. Western Australian short-term business confidence has now recovered around 60 per cent of the fall recorded during the peak of the pandemic.

A higher proportion of businesses in every region expect weaker conditions over the short-term compared to those expecting stronger conditions. The majority expect conditions to worsen over the next twelve months. Three out of four (75%) surveyed businesses in the Goldfields and Wheatbelt regions expect weaker conditions over the year ahead, while skill shortages remain the largest barrier to growth for surveyed businesses in the Mid-West, Gascoyne and Pilbara (28%) and Kimberley (36%).

While short-term sentiment has improved, businesses are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the longer-term outlook. Two out of three (66%) businesses expect the WA economy to worsen over the year ahead, up 5 percentage points since last quarter, while only 16 per cent expect conditions to improve. This increases the imperative for State and Federal governments to commit to meaningful economic reform and supercharge WA’s economic recovery by unlocking new business investment.

Three out of five (60%) businesses are currently suffering from interstate border restrictions, slightly more than the proportion being affected by international border closures (55%).  Services-based industries appear most affected by interstate border closures, including Accommodation and Food Services (95%), Wholesale Trade (89%) and Retail Trade (76%).

  • Two out of five retailers expect conditions to worsen over the next 12 months.
  • One out of three retailers expect to lay off staff over the next 3 months.
  • Only 5% expect to increase their capital expenditure.
  • Retail trade has been flat for 3 years.
  • Over 8,500 West Australians want a job in the retail sector but are unable to find one.
  • The vast majority of these people are our young people. 
  • Retail is WA’s third largest employing industry.

The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has driven Western Australian consumer confidence to its lowest level on record, according to the latest CCIWA Consumer Confidence Survey. Four out of five (81%) Western Australians rated COVID-19 as reducing their confidence in the June quarter, while a high number of Western Australians reported heightened concerns about their job prospects and personal financial situation.

In order to pay for recent COVID-19 stimulus measures, both the State and Federal Governments will have to take on greater levels of debt which must be paid back in the future. The vast majority of Western Australians (84%) believe the best way to repay this debt going forward is to grow the economy, rather than simply raising taxes on businesses and households. Only 14 per cent would be supportive of higher taxes to pay down debt.

In this special edition of the CCIWA Consumer Confidence Survey investigated the extent to which Western Australian’s employment status has changed since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to May 2020):
  -  21 per cent of previously employed casual workers are now currently unemployed – the highest proportion of all employment categories - and a further 9 per cent moved out of the workforce.
Given that a higher share of casual workers are employed in industries hardest hit from COVID-19 shutdowns, such as hospitality and retail, many of those ineligible for the JobKeeper subsidy were more likely to have been laid off. To be eligible for the program, casual employees must have worked for their employer for 12 months or more.

To assess future spending expectations, we asked WA consumers whether they plan to increase spending on a range of items when social distancing restrictions are lifted.
  -  More than one out of two (54%) Western Australians plan to increase spending on holidays within WA when restrictions are eased, more than double the proportion that plan to holiday internationally (23%).

  -  One out of three (34%) plan to boost their social outings at a bar or pub, while four out of ten (43%) expect to eat out more.

We ensure your business stays ahead of the pack on how the WA economy is performing.

WHAT WE DO

BUSINESS CONFIDENCEOUTLOOKCONSUMER CONFIDENCESNAPSHOT

Almost one out of two (48%) WA businesses expect economic conditions to improve or remain unchanged over the next 3 months, up 10 percentage points since last quarter

Business Confidence

June 
Quarter 2020

Short-term confidence (3 months)  

BREAKOUT ANALYSIS

COMPARISON - CONSUMER VS BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

Long-term confidence (12 months)  

Consumer Confidence

June
Quarter 2020

 10.1 index points

 13.8 index points

0.1 index points

3.1 index points

Comparing: June – September Quarters 2019

Business Confidence

Expect weaker economic conditions

5%

Expectations over the next 3 months   

9%

Expectations over the past 12 months   

Expect a drop in profitability  

6%

Expect to increase capital expenditure 

4%

15%

12%

Anticipate higher levels of debt or credit 

COVID-19

Consumer Confidence

Top detractor from confidence  

Exceeded their monthly incomes

Expectations over the past 3 months   

Weaker personal financial situation    

Expectations over the next 12 months 

Expect to reduce staffing levels

5%

What West Australians think

Western Australia is in a unique economic situation. Our economy has been buffeted by the winds of COVID-19. Yet for parts of the economy at present, conditions are relatively calm due to enormous levels of fiscal stimulus. With significant headwinds on the horizon however, we are very much in the eye of the storm.  

BIANNUAL FORECAST FOR THE WA ECONOMY

Many businesses have sought to keep their employees in work during the COVID-19 pandemic. Weekly payroll jobs have shown some signs of recovery, particularly in WA, supported by the reopening of the WA economy. However, the unemployment rate will continue to increase in 2020-21 as more people look for work and support measures are wound back.

Falls in business revenue and investment will restrict businesses from hiring more workers and increasing wages.
That said, in some areas, there will continue to be areas of skills shortages putting upward pressure on wages, as businesses compete to attract workers.

-3.0% in 2020-21

1.0% in 2021-22

1.0% in 2020-21

1.5% in 2021-22

-4.5% in 2020-21

2.0% in 2021-22

11% in 2020-21

9.0% in 2021-22

5.0% in 2020-21

-6.0% in 2021-22

0.5% in 2020-21

1.0% in 2021-22

Read Outlook

Our economics team has its finger on the pulse 
when it comes to the Western Australian economy.

Help your business stay ahead of the pack with our expert analysis of how the economy is performing both domestically and globally, how changing economic conditions may impact your business and how you can position yourself for future growth.

Get in touch

JAMES WALSH

GRADUATE ECONOMIST

DANIEL NORRIE

SENIOR ECONOMIST

JOHN DOE

CHIEF ECONOMIST

We ensure your business stays ahead of the pack on how the WA economy is performing.

WHAT WE DO

SNAPSHOT

WHAT WE DO

We ensure your business stays ahead of the pack on how the WA economy is performing

Our economics team has its finger on the pulse when it comes to the Western Australian economy.

Help your business stay ahead of the pack with our expert analysis of how the economy is performing both domestically and globally, how changing economic conditions may impact your business and how you can position yourself for future growth.

Our Team

Get in Touch

- John Doe -

Chief Economist

 

- Dan Norrie -

Senior Economist 

 

- James Walsh -

Graduate Economist 

 

WHAT WE DO

- Dan Norrie -

Senior Economist 

 

- James Walsh -

Graduate Economist 

 

What WA businesses think

What West Australians think

OUR TEAM

CURRENT ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

What WA businesses think

What West Australians think

Almost one out of two (48%) WA businesses expect economic conditions to improve or remain unchanged over the next 3 months, up 10 percentage points since last quarter

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

Our WA Super – CCIWA Business Confidence Survey is the only WA-specific index in the country, providing a snapshot of state-wide economic conditions and business expectations.

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DROPS IN SEPTEMBER QUARTER

The WA economy is not performing as strongly as it was compared to the 10-year average, but that includes a period of unprecedented economic growth. Businesses expectations for the WA economy remains mixed.

Next 3-months           7%

September 2019 Quarter

CONFIDENCE SOFTENS AS PROFITABILITY FALLS

Global headwinds may have contributed to the fall in medium-term expectations, driven by a slowing world economy, escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and mounting uncertainty in the Eurozone.

Next 12-months         3%

INDUSTRIES LEADING CONFIDENCE

Top 3 industries leading confidence over the medium term (next 12-months):

1. Healthcare

2. Construction

3. Mining 

BARRIERS TO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

 Top 3 barriers to business confidence in the September 2019 quarter: 

1. Weak demand

2. Rising operating costs 

3. Availability of skilled labour  

Read the Business Confidence ReportRead our Media Release

West Australian businesses are more confident about end-of-year trading conditions but less confident about the next 12 months  

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

Our WA Super – CCIWA Business Confidence Survey is the only WA-specific index in the country, providing a snapshot of state-wide economic conditions and business expectations.

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DROPS IN SEPTEMBER QUARTER

The WA economy is not performing as strongly as it was compared to the 10-year average, but that includes a period of unprecedented economic growth. Businesses expectations for the WA economy remains mixed.

Next 3-months           7%

September 2019 Quarter

CONFIDENCE SOFTENS AS PROFITABILITY FALLS

Global headwinds may have contributed to the fall in medium-term expectations, driven by a slowing world economy, escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and mounting uncertainty in the Eurozone.

Next 12-months         3%

INDUSTRIES LEADING CONFIDENCE

Top 3 industries leading confidence over the medium term (next 12-months):

1. Healthcare

2. Construction

3. Mining 

BARRIERS TO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

 Top 3 barriers to business confidence in the September 2019 quarter: 

1. Weak demand

2. Rising operating costs 

3. Availability of skilled labour  

Read the Business Confidence ReportRead our Media Release

West Australian businesses are more confident about end-of-year trading conditions but less confident about the next 12 months  

West Australian businesses are more confident about end-of-year trading conditions but less confident about the next 12 months  

Our Consumer Confidence Survey is the only survey of its kind in WA, canvassing the views of adult consumers in both metropolitan Perth and regional WA.

Next 3 months        13.8 index points

Next 12 months        3.1 index points

OUTLOOK

HOUSEHOLD SPENDING TO SLOW

WEAK WAGES GROWTH TO CONTINUE

GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES WILL BRING FORWARD DWELLING INVESTMENT

The quadrupling of government support for new home builders has triggered a rush to secure land and lay a slab.

EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ECONOMY

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WILL INCREASE

Weakness in international trade has not harmed WA’s commodity exports, which have been supported by high demand for Australian iron ore. However, capacity constraints will continue to place a ceiling on growth in export volumes.

CAUTION WILL REDUCE BUSINESS INVESTMENT 

In the current uncertain environment, many business owners are more cautious in committing to investments and some projects have been deferred. However, investment in WA will continue to be supported by spending on major projects.

Household spending has been on a wild ride. Consumers have increased spending on some retail categories but significantly reduced spending in other areas (e.g. transport services, discretionary retail, cafes and restaurants). Increased unemployment and falls in income will reduce household spending.

Western Australia is in a unique economic situation. Our economy has been buffeted by the winds of COVID-19. Yet for parts of the economy at present, conditions are relatively calm due to enormous levels of fiscal stimulus. With significant headwinds on the horizon however, we are very much in the Eye of the Storm.

BIANNUAL FORECAST FOR THE WA ECONOMY

Many businesses have sought to keep their employees in work during the COVID-19 pandemic. Weekly payroll jobs have showed some signs of recovery, particularly in WA, supported by the reopening of the WA economy. However, the unemployment rate will continue to increase in 2020-21 as more people look for work and support measures are wound back.

Falls in business revenue and investment will restrict businesses from hiring more workers and increasing wages. That said, in some areas there will continue to be areas of skills shortages putting upward pressure on wages, as businesses compete to attract workers.

Read Outlook

-3.0% in 2020-21

1.0% in 2021-22

1.0% in 2020-21

1.5% in 2021-22

-4.5% in 2020-21

2.0% in 2021-22

11% in 2020-21

9.0% in 2021-22

5.0% in 2020-21

-6.0% in 2021-22

0.5% In 2020-21

1.0% in 2021-22

CURRENT ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT 

Medium-Term confidence (12-months)       3.1 index points

June Quarter 2020

June Quarter 2020

June Quarter 2020

June Quarter 2020

June Quarter 2020

June Quarter 2020

17%

Short-term confidence (3 months)        10.1 index points

Long-term confidence (12 months)        0.1 index points

Next 3 months        10.1 index points

Next 12 months        0.1 index points

Weaker job prospects